Trump's USMCA Renewal Threat Is Leverage for the July 1 Review
Trump said on June 10 that he is not looking to renew USMCA at the July 1 joint review, but July 1 is a scheduled review meeting rather than a termination deadline. Under Article 34.7, absent a separate withdrawal notice, a failure to agree on a sixteen-year extension shifts the agreement onto an annual-review track while it remains scheduled to run to 2036, and only a separate Article 34.6 withdrawal notice starts a six-month exit clock. The active Mexico rounds, the Canada renewal push, and the post-IEEPA tariff stack that leans on USMCA rules-of-origin compliance all point to leverage rather than collapse, so the benchmark to watch is whether a formal withdrawal notice is ever filed.
USTRIEEPAUSMCA