China's Rare-Earth Controls Are a License Regime, and November 10 Is the Date to Model
China's critical-mineral controls have settled into a standing licensing system rather than one-off retaliation. The April 2025 rare-earth measures still bind and have never been suspended, while the broader October 2025 escalation is only paused, until November 10, 2026. For Chinese magnets the duty that actually lands in 2026 is the Section 301 25 percent rate, not a Section 232 tariff. The work now is tracing license exposure and heavy-rare-earth content and planning around the November 2026 snapback.
USTRCommerceSection 301